PAX2

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050 = reference average100

Engage

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Interest

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Act

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	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
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Impressions (1k)

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Per Person

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Opening
Engaging and intriguing
Aerial view of snowy mountains and glaciers
Stream flowing over rocks with branches
Man standing by a river with election signs
Graphic with 'ALL VOTERS' and colorful dots
Text explaining voter participation regardless of party
Text describing the general election system
Graphic showing candidate rankings and elimination
Woman discussing the past two cycles
Man discussing legislative changes
Man discussing Alaskan voters' preferences
Man discussing reforms and primaries
Split-screen discussion of reforms
Woman discussing primary voting and general elections
Man discussing the hope of winning by moving away from primary structures
Attorney discussing the shift towards a larger margin

setting: Various outdoor and indoor scenes
on screen people: Multiple individuals, including a man and a woman
captions: Presented throughout the video
text overlays: Key points and explanations
music: Not applicable (no audio)
pace: Moderate, with clear transitions
call to action: None explicitly shown
visual variety: Mix of natural landscapes and interviews

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video