PAX2

5751–63

050 = reference average100

Engage

6155–67

Interest

5750–64

Act

5547–63

Sample figures

	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
Counts	41,800	0:19	535
Rate	28.2%	20.0%	1.3%
Ref. avg	24.0%	17.5%	1.1%
Weighted	15.3	22.8	19.3
Distance	+0.6 sd	+0.4 sd	+0.3 sd
Score	61	57	55
Weight	25%	40%	35%

Sample figures

Spend$1,200

Impressions148,000

Reach96,500

3s plays41,800

ThruPlays18,900

25% play22,600

50% play14,100

75% play9,300

100% play6,200

Avg. Time0:19

Shares310

Saves140

Comments85

Reactions1,240

Clicks1,960

CTA1.3%

Spend

$1,200

Impressions (1k)

$8.11

3s play

$0.029

Per Person

$0.012

Sample figures

Opening
Engaging and clear.
A pie chart displays 10% of voters participating in primaries.
The U.S. Capitol is shown with text emphasizing low voter turnout.
A calendar flips from March to July, symbolizing time before elections.
An animation depicts a prison gate with 16.5 million independent voters excluded.
A ballot graphic illustrates open primaries.
The speaker proposes open primaries as a solution.

setting: Indoor, with a bookshelf in the background.
on screen people: One man, wearing a light green polo shirt.
captions: Yes, present throughout the video.
text overlays: Yes, used to highlight key points.
music: Not applicable, no audio information provided.
pace: Moderate, with clear transitions between visuals.
call to action: Suggests open primaries as a solution.
visual variety: Mix of live-action, animations, and graphics.

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video