PAX2

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050 = reference average100

Engage

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Interest

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Act

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	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
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Impressions (1k)

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Per Person

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Opening
Engaging and informative.
A man with glasses speaks in front of a microphone.
A campaign sign for 'CROCKETT, TEXAS' is shown.
A man in a black jacket gestures while speaking.
A woman in a black dress walks past a sign.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A woman in a black dress walks past a sign.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A woman in a polka dot dress walks past a reserved parking sign.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man with glasses speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a suit speaks in front of a building with a US flag.
A woman speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a suit speaks in front of a building with a US flag.
A man in a suit speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a suit speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a suit speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a suit speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light purple shirt speaks in front of a microphone.
A man in a light blue shirt speaks in front of a microphone.

setting: Indoor studio with microphone setup and political signage.
on screen people: Multiple individuals in various attire speaking at a microphone.
captions: None visible.
text overlays: Campaign signs for 'CROCKETT, TEXAS' and 'TALLARICO' appear.
music: Background instrumental music throughout.
pace: Moderate, with consistent speaker transitions.
call to action: Implied: encourage civic engagement in primaries.
visual variety: Repetitive speaker shots with occasional signage and background elements.

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video