PAX2

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050 = reference average100

Engage

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Interest

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Act

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	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
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Impressions (1k)

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Per Person

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Opening
Engaging
Man with glasses speaking
Aerial view of city with smoke and fire
Man with short hair speaking
Text overlay: 'Congress must reclaim war powers'
Footage of protest march with signs
Close-up of a gavel striking a desk
Archival footage of Congress debating
Text overlay: 'The Constitution says Congress declares war'
Image of a presidential seal with a red X
Footage of a person holding a sign: 'Hold leaders accountable'
Text overlay: 'Power should not be in one person's hands'
Montage of news headlines about military actions
Final frame: 'Demand accountability. Restore Congress's power.'

setting: Indoor studio with microphone, mixed with outdoor and archival footage
on screen people: Two men, one with glasses, one with short hair, plus crowd and archival figures
captions: Yes, overlaid throughout the video
text overlays: Yes, multiple text overlays reinforcing key messages
music: Subtle background music, builds slightly during climax
pace: Moderate, with deliberate transitions and emphasis on key points
call to action: Demand accountability. Restore Congress's power.
visual variety: High, combining speaking segments, archival footage, protests, and text overlays

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video