PAX2

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050 = reference average100

Engage

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Interest

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Act

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	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
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Impressions (1k)

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Opening
Engaging start with a real-life scenario.
Interview with a woman in a city square discussing voting rights.
Interview with a man in a park emphasizing fairness in voting.
Interview with a young woman in a waiting area supporting independent voter rights.
Interview with a man on a city street calling the current system ridiculous.
Multiple interviews with diverse individuals in various settings advocating for voting access.
Continued interviews highlighting the exclusion of independents in primaries.
More individuals express outrage over voting restrictions and demand change.
Interview with a couple on a street stating everyone should have the right to vote.
Interview with a young woman in a waiting area emphasizing inclusivity.
Interview with a man on a street stressing the importance of public opinion.
Interview with a woman in a waiting area urging New Yorkers to speak up.
Text overlay encouraging viewers to vote and express their views.

setting: Various indoor and outdoor locations across NYC.
on screen people: Diverse individuals, including men and women of different ages.
captions: Text overlays provide key facts about NYC voter demographics.
text overlays: Highlight voting rights, independence, and call to action.
music: No music; focus on spoken messages.
pace: Moderate with quick transitions between interviews.
call to action: Encourage all New Yorkers to express their views and vote.
visual variety: Different settings and individuals enhance visual engagement.

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video