PAX2

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050 = reference average100

Engage

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Interest

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Act

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	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
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Spend-

Impressions-

Reach-

3s plays-

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Avg. Time-

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Spend

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Impressions (1k)

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3s play

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Per Person

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Opening
Strong opening statement grabs attention.
Man in a light-colored shirt speaks to the camera outdoors.
News article about Elon Musk's spending on ranked choice voting in Alaska.
Red megaphones in front of the US Capitol.
Encouragement to subscribe to 'Courageous Colorado.'

setting: Outdoor and indoor visuals
on screen people: One man, no other people visible
captions: Yes, overlaid on visuals
text overlays: Yes, throughout the video
music: Not applicable, no audio information
pace: Moderate, with clear transitions
call to action: Encourages subscription to 'Courageous Colorado'
visual variety: Mix of outdoor shots, news articles, and symbolic visuals

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video