PAX2

--

050 = reference average100

Engage

--

Interest

--

Act

--

	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
Counts	-	-	-
Rate	-	-	-
Ref. avg	-	-	-
Weighted	-	-	-
Distance	-	-	-
Score	-	-	-
Weight	-	-	-

Spend-

Impressions-

Reach-

3s plays-

ThruPlays-

25% play-

50% play-

75% play-

100% play-

Avg. Time-

Shares-

Saves-

Comments-

Reactions-

Clicks-

CTA-

Spend

-

Impressions (1k)

-

3s play

-

Per Person

-

Opening
Strong, attention-grabbing opening that sets the video's central theme.
Cardboard cutout of a man with a wide smile, gesturing with his right hand.
Alaska map with a cardboard cutout of the state and a metal pin.
Cardboard hands holding signs with 'RCV', 'OPEN PRIMARYS', and 'CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM'.
Woman with curly hair speaking to the camera.
Silhouettes of people putting dollar bills into a ballot box.
Cardboard figures on platforms with scissors cutting a string between them.
Woman speaking again, followed by cardboard figures behind a box.
Cardboard figures with numbers above them, and the woman speaking.
Woman speaking, with cardboard figures and a coffin-like box.
Woman speaking, with cardboard figures and a cardboard cutout of a man gesturing.

setting: Indoor, with cardboard cutouts and silhouettes.
on screen people: Woman with curly hair, cardboard figures.
captions: Text overlays on the screen.
text overlays: Yes, providing context and information.
music: Not applicable, no audio described.
pace: Moderate, with clear transitions between scenes.
call to action: Not explicitly mentioned in the visuals.
visual variety: Mix of cardboard cutouts, silhouettes, and text overlays.

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video