PAX2

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050 = reference average100

Engage

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Interest

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Act

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	Engage · 25%	Interest · 40%	Act · 35%
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Spend-

Impressions-

Reach-

3s plays-

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Spend

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Impressions (1k)

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3s play

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Per Person

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Opening
Engaging and personal.
A person with short curly hair and a cap discusses ranked choice voting.
An older man with gray hair talks about having multiple choices.
A woman with dark hair explains the ranked choice voting system.
A man with a beard and a white t-shirt discusses ranked choice voting.
A man with glasses and a black shirt talks about voting for candidates.
A woman with short brown hair explains the ranked choice voting process.
The woman with dark hair discusses the importance of voting.
A man with sunglasses and a black t-shirt talks about ranked choice voting.
A woman with glasses and a light blue hoodie discusses ranked choice voting.
The woman with short brown hair talks about the candidates' spending.
The video ends with a FairVote call to action.

setting: Outdoor, against brick walls and buildings.
on screen people: Various individuals, diverse in appearance.
captions: Yes, providing spoken words.
text overlays: Yes, summarizing key points.
music: Not applicable, no audio.
pace: Moderate, with clear transitions.
call to action: Yes, FairVote call to action.
visual variety: Yes, different people and settings.

1.9×Clicks, best headline over worst

12,256Headline tests

Carries a number19.1% of winners · 17.2% of losers

Starts with “This” or “These”6.8% of winners · 5.8% of losers

Asks a question14.2% of winners · 18.2% of losers

Says “you” or “your”25.3% of winners · 25.3% of losers

Quotes someone1.2% of winners · 1.2% of losers

Shouts a word in capitals5.1% of winners · 6% of losers

Starts with “What”, “Why” or “How”6.3% of winners · 8.3% of losers

Says “watch”, “see” or “listen”8.2% of winners · 6.7% of losers

Trails off or breaks midline4.6% of winners · 4.9% of losers

First person: “I” or “my”14% of winners · 12% of losers

The same story under different headlines, shown at random, 2013–2015.

Pushed Baseline Killed

Label

r_{v} = \frac{views _{v}}{median _{u \in c (v), age_{u} \geq 7 d} views _{u}} y_{v} = 1 [r_{v} \geq 3]

Within a channel

Δ_{c} = \frac{1}{a _{c}} v \in A_{c} \sum y_{v} - \frac{1}{b _{c}} v \in B_{c} \sum y_{v} a_{c}, b_{c} \geq 3, a_{c} + b_{c} \leq 300

Weight

w_{c} = \frac{2 a _{c} b _{c}}{a _{c} + b _{c}}

Pooled, in points

Δ^= 100 \cdot \frac{\sum _{c} w _{c} Δ _{c}}{\sum _{c} w _{c}}

90% range

Δ^^{* (1)}, \dots, Δ^^{* (1000)} channels drawn with replacement [Δ^_{(50)}^{*}, Δ^_{(950)}^{*}]

Worked example

Δ_{Holler} = \frac{13}{70} - \frac{19}{208} = 0.094 w = \frac{2 \cdot 70 \cdot 208}{278} = 104.7 Δ^_{reform, CTA} = \frac{2073.7}{252.5} = + 8.2

A guess, written down before the numbers come in: will this video do better or worse than usual? When the numbers arrive, PAX2 checks the guess against them, and every check makes the next guess sharper.

Every round on file is already loaded; forecasting reopens when a new round is expected.

Video